CFS Loan Projection Model

Every Credit Union establishes certain assumptions based on their loan policy and risk tolerance. Most credit unions don’t check to see if their actual revenue matches the original revenue expected for loans in their portfolio. While the credit union may be able to say that they are ‘profitable’ at a high level they are not able to drill into specific parts of the portfolio or specific loans to see if their loan policy is performing as expected.

The CFS Loan Projection model evaluates collateralized loans by assessing three primary components:

  • The monthly revenue that each loan was expected to generate based on the original.
  • The actual revenue generated since the loan funded.
  • The projected future payment based upon the payment history and behavior.

The above information is combined to create a real time view of the loan revenue in comparison to its origination. This can be aggregated up to different levels like the portfolio, collateral type, risk rating, loan officer, etc.

Common Use Cases

  • Adjust follow up with members to engage member as they get near their actual pay-off date for a loan vs. the maturity date set at origination.
  • Assess pre-payment speeds and early run-off in the portfolio to more accurately invest in portfolio growth.
  • More critically assess the risk tolerance of the policy and its true costs to the credit union.
  • Measure and improve member engagement in loan products.

Common Questions

Only loans that are collateralized and have a consistent expected payment for each term are a part of the model.

Loans that have CFS Connector (FICS, Mortgage Cadence) will be used in this model.

The model runs once a month to ensure that every loan has a chance to make a payment in that period.

Yes, the expected maturity date is updated every time the model runs.

Yes, this can be used to look at trending both in terms of the total revenue of the portfolio for that period of time and the revenue expected in future periods.

Technical Details

  • Runs on SQL Server 2014/2016/2019 Standard Edition or Enterprise Edition.
  • Requires access to Detailed loan balance data.
  • Requires access to 3 years of loan payment history as well as loan payment history going forward.

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